Ten days before the start of the 2025 Atlantic season, officials in the National Oceanic and Air Force Administration announced the number of tropical storms and hurricanes that can be expected this year. The current view predicts a 60 % opportunity of the “naturally” hurricane season, with between 13 to 19 storms called. The predictors said that it is expected to strengthen six to 10 of these hurricanes, and it may become three to five hurricanes.
They were estimated that there is a 30 % chance for a “semi -natural” season and a 10 % opportunity for a “abnormal” season.
NOAA, the Federal Agency responsible for weather and climate predictions, issues seasonal hurricane expectations every spring. It includes research from the Climate Prediction Center, the National Hurricane Center and the National weather service, and all branches of the agency.
Kane Graham, Director of Representation Noaa, Director of NOAA, Ken Graham, presented the results during a press conference on Thursday morning at the Emergency Operations Center in Jefferson in our Girl, Louisiana, outside New Orleans. They chose this site to commemorate victims and destroy Hurricane Katrina, 20 years after that storm destroyed the area.
In their statements, Grimm and Graham emphasized the technological developments that allowed NOAA and the weather service to produce more accurate expectations with every year that passes.
“The United States is fortunate to have the best scientists, meteorologists and computer modeling experts,” Grimm said. “These experts are constantly learning from the current and previous events.”
The Hurricane season extends officially June 1 until November 30With the peak activity that usually occurs between mid -August and mid -October.
The average season of 14 storms is produced, including seven developing hurricanes. Three of these, on average, have become hurricanes, meaning a Category 3 or higher On the Saffir-Simpson scale, with continuous wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Category 5the The top of the scaleBring wind speeds at least 157 mph.
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all Hurricane season of Atlantic since 2015 More than the “Mediterranean”-a standard based on the annual hurricane registered activity throughout the period from 1990 to 2020-has been produced although four seasons have since produced two or three main hurricanes, either below or on an equal footing with the standard for 30 years.
According to predictions, there are “confluence of factors” that affect the number of storms that are achieved throughout the season. One important one in 2025 is the neutral stage of the oscillation of the South Nino, or ENSO, which often plays a major role in the severity of tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
The expectations said that the warmer expectations of the average temperatures in the ocean and the cutting of the weak winds may lead to a more active season. Atlantic Hurricane It arises.
Some seasons are more active than others, and hurricanes can sometimes occur outside the intended window for six months. Science has shown in recent years that climate change contributes to The severity of these stormsWhich are nourished by warmer water. Researchers continue to explore the links between high temperatures and the most destructive orbital weather.
Since every year it differs, the expectations of Hurricane Noaa provides a framework for societies in the areas exposed to storms to prepare for the next season. The agency may also issue an updated hurricane forecast later this season if its evaluation is changed.
The NOAA prediction model, a hurricane analysis system and a prediction system or a HaFS, is expected to be subject to an upgrade that officials believe may increase the accuracy of storm tracking by about 5 %.
“During the thirty years I had in the national weather service, we had no more advanced models and weather warning systems,” Graham said in a statement. “This view is an invitation to work: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to develop a plan and collect supplies to make sure that you are ready before threatening the storm.”
Last year, noa predicted Supreme average storms, with between 8 and 13 hurricanes. the 2024 season It ended with the production of 11 hurricanes, five of which were strengthened to the main hurricanes. Five hurricanes have achieved a decline in the continental United States, including two – Helen and Milton – That was struck as Main hurricanes.
Grimm said that last year’s expectations “were right to money”, within the expected NOAA scope.
The threat of the hurricane season above the average
When researchers from tropical hurricanes at Colorado State University published the radar, air modeling and software team their annual expectations earlier this spring, and they predicted ” Hurricane season higher than average For 2025, it is possible that it will produce stronger and more frequent storms than a model year Last season.
Their predictions tend to consider more or less with those released. Levi Silvars, who leads the research team in Colorado, told April that their predictions “depend mainly on the notes that NOAA collects all over the world”, especially in the oceans, so generally reach similar conclusions.
The virtues and his team expected that there will be 17 storms called this season – tropical storms with continuous wind speeds of no less than 39 miles per hour. According to their expectations, nine storms will grow into hurricanes, with three major hurricanes. This would put the hurricane activity in about 125 % of the seasonal average registered between 1991 and 2020, according to their report.
“It is a noticeable and important difference, because it matters to people along the coast whenever we have a higher season of the average.”
The Colorado State report largely attributed the highest expected activity this year to warm sea surface temperatures, which can work mainly as a fuel for storms. However, the results also indicated “the great uncertainty” regarding the stage of the ENSO course will match the next hurricane season.
Nino, the most warmer half of the cycle, is often associated with the conditions in a section of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that does not spoil hurricanes, while Nenia, the reverse is cooler, is more suitable for the formation of a hurricane. The conditions of La Niña ended shortly after the launch of CSU, its hurricane expectations and returned to “Neutral”, a mandate that the researchers said can be favorable to hurricanes to develop in the absence of Nino.
